| Application of Satellite Rainfall Product for Rainfall Short-Term Forecast validation |
| Paper ID : 1046-ICRSSSA-FULL |
| Authors |
|
Doaa Mohamed Amin * Water Resources Research Institute (WRRI), National Water Research Center (NWRC), Egypt |
| Abstract |
| In arid and semi-arid regions, such as Sinai Peninsula, flash floods pose a significant danger to society and individuals, may cause loss of life, property and jobs. An early warning system that relies on accurate short-term forecasts (three days) would warn residents at least to save lives. Therefore, this paper aim to skill the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), spatial resolution 0.05o and daily temporal resolution, in rainfall short-term forecast on Sinai, reference to the rainfall estimate from satellite images product called Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), 0.1o and daily spatiotemporal resolution. The evaluation will done for the most extreme events that occurred since 2010. The GPM will be validated first using the Global Precipitation Climatology Center data (GPCC) at monthly time series, to be sure that GPM could present the rainfall over Sinai accurately. The evaluated criteria for WRF are applied at station and catchment scales using most common criteria used in meteorology; Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Threat Score (TS), %Bias (PB). The skill scores are used also to know is the forecast better or worse than the control or reference, where the skill scores that used are; Heidke Skill Score (HSS), Gilbert Skill Score (GSS) and Brier Score (BS). The GPM validated results produce a monthly bias factors for GPM data for all 29 station’s locations in Sinai. The results indicated agreement with the predictions generated by WRF and GPM data in the most selected events especially in occur/not occur detection. |
| Keywords |
| WRF, Forecast, GPM, GPCC and Skill Scores |
| Status: Accepted (Oral Presentation) |
